Top 10 Contender Picks for the Kentucky Derby®
Updated: May 3, 2012. It is officially Kentucky Derby week! This week's top 10 contenders list compares my top 10 Kentucky Derby® contenders with two expert's picks: John Asher and Loren Hebel-Osborne.
|1. Union Rags||1. Union Rags||1. Union Rags|
|2. Creative Cause||2. Dullahan||2. Bodemeister|
|3. Take Charge Indy||3. Hansen||3. Gemologist|
|4. Daddy Nose Best||4. Gemologist||4. Dullahan|
|5. Went the Day Well||5. Daddy Nose Best||5. Creative Cause|
|6. Dullahan||6. Bodemeister||6. Hansen|
|7. Prospective||7. Creative Cause||7. I'll Have Another|
|8. Hansen||8. Prospective||8. Daddy Nose Best|
|9. Bodemeister||9. Liason||9. Alpha|
|10. I'll Have Another||10. Alpha||10. Take Charge Indy|
*Unique Pick for Each Analyst
Breaking Down the Picks
Union Rags is the consensus top pick for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. He is currently second in the overall odds at (9-2), but has been the top overall contender throughout the Derby prep season. He performed very well in his prep races winning three times in his last five races. He had a severe slip in March's Florida Derby, which was the only blemish in his Derby preps. If you haven't selected your pick for this year's Derby, make sure you give Union Rags a strong consideration for Saturday's big race.
The early odds favorite to win this year's Derby is Bodemeister at (4-1). I have him ranked second in my final rankings due to his post position draw yesterday. Bodemeister is in the No. 6 post, where six Kentucky Derby winners have started. Bodemeister, trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, is the stronger of his two horses, having won the Arkansas Derby by 9 1/2 lengths in the most dominating performance of the Derby prep races.
Dullahan, currently at (8-1) odds, is starting in the 5th post position for this year's Derby. Twelve Kentucky Derby® champions have started out of the fifth post, the most of any post position. Dullahan is coming off a victory at the April 14th Toyota Blue Grass, which was his second win in his Derby preps. With the history of the 5th post position and his recent performance in his Derby preps, Dullahan will be a safe bet in Saturday's Kentucky Derby®.
Kentucky Derby: By the Numbers*
- Approximately 30,000 thoroughbred foals born in the US
- 15,000 ( Half!) will make it in a race but their careers will end before they have a victory
- 10,000 will be good enough to run in an allowance race
- 450 will run in a graded stakes race but not have enough earnings to make it into the Kentucky Derby
- 20 will run
- And, only 1 will win
*Statistics courtesy of the Kentucky Derby Museum
About the Experts
John Asher joined Churchill Downs® in 1997 as a publicist and racing analyst, and moved to his current role as vice president of Racing Communications two years later. Before his arrival at Churchill Downs, Asher earned five media Eclipse Awards for Outstanding National Radio Coverage of Thoroughbred Racing at Louisville radio stations WHAS and WAVG.
Loren Hebel-Osborne maintains an active racing and breeding farm just outside of Louisville. She often serves as a guest speaker and racing analyst for schools, clubs, corporate events and local news stations WHAS-TV and WBKI’s “Louisville Live” for Kentucky Derby® and Breeders’ Cup coverage. Loren also spent 15 years with VISA where she was involved in all aspects of managing its sponsorship of the Triple Crown and the Kentucky Derby®.
Who is your favorite in this year's Kentucky Derby? Share your thoughts below.
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